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Hollie Naughton v Rachael Grinham (Thu 26 Sep 2019)

Match won by Hollie Naughton. Result: 11-3,11-9.

Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 7,579, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Rachael Grinham: 6,258, level confidence: 68%.
Hollie Naughton to win as she is currently playing 21% better than Rachael Grinham.

Hollie Naughton won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hollie Naughton played 83% better than Rachael Grinham in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hollie Naughton actually played at a level of 9,325 and Rachael Grinham at a level of 5,086. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton changes to +15% and Rachael Grinham changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton becomes +4.6% and for Rachael Grinham becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hollie Naughton: 75%, Rachael Grinham: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hollie Naughton: 61%, Rachael Grinham: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hollie Naughton: 7,802, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Rachael Grinham: 6,063, level confidence: 67%.