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Mostafa Asal v Mohamed Elsherbini (Thu 26 Sep 2019)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-3,11-7.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 41,982, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 33,815, level confidence: 57%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Mohamed Elsherbini.

Mostafa Asal won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 120% better than Mohamed Elsherbini in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mostafa Asal actually played at a level of 55,885 and Mohamed Elsherbini at a level of 25,402. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to +21% and Mohamed Elsherbini changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes +4.3% and for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 65%, Mohamed Elsherbini: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 49%, Mohamed Elsherbini: 57%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 43,584, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 32,915, level confidence: 57%.