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Alan Clyne v George Parker (Thu 26 Sep 2019)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 11-9,11-6.

Starting level for Alan Clyne: 44,459, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for George Parker: 37,116, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 20% better than George Parker.

Alan Clyne won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 47% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 49% better than George Parker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Clyne actually played at a level of 49,655 and George Parker at a level of 33,232. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 7.9% and 7.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to +7.9% and George Parker changes to -6.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes +2% and for George Parker becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 85%, George Parker: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 76%, George Parker: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Clyne: 45,263, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for George Parker: 36,599, level confidence: 83%.