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Tsz Kwan Lau v Rex Hedrick (Wed 25 Sep 2019)

Match won by Tsz Kwan Lau. Result: 11-8,6-11,11-9,9-11,11-9.

Starting level for Tsz Kwan Lau: 26,678, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 35,292, level confidence: 56%.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Tsz Kwan Lau.

Tsz Kwan Lau won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tsz Kwan Lau played 8% better than Rex Hedrick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tsz Kwan Lau actually played at a level of 31,814 and Rex Hedrick at a level of 29,594. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tsz Kwan Lau changes to +13% and Rex Hedrick changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tsz Kwan Lau becomes +3.2% and for Rex Hedrick becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tsz Kwan Lau: 83%, Rex Hedrick: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tsz Kwan Lau: 70%, Rex Hedrick: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tsz Kwan Lau: 27,549, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Rex Hedrick: 34,616, level confidence: 63%.