Baptiste Masotti v Juan Camilo Vargas (Wed 25 Sep 2019)
Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 7-11,11-5,11-5,11-8.
Starting level for
Baptiste Masotti:
34,571, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Juan Camilo Vargas:
29,103, level confidence: 53%.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing
19% better than Juan Camilo Vargas.
Baptiste Masotti won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played
29% better than Juan Camilo Vargas in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Baptiste Masotti actually played at a level of
36,064 and Juan Camilo Vargas at a level of
27,898. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to +3.5% and Juan Camilo Vargas changes to -4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes +1.3% and for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes -1.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 78%, Juan Camilo Vargas: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 75%, Juan Camilo Vargas: 70%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti:
34,872, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas:
28,844, level confidence: 70%.