Mohammad Alsarraj v Bernat Jaume (Mon 23 Sep 2019)
Match won by Mohammad Alsarraj. Result: 6-11,11-9,11-8,11-3.
Starting level for
Mohammad Alsarraj:
21,046, level confidence: 37%.
Starting level for
Bernat Jaume:
30,205, level confidence: 67%.
Bernat Jaume to win as he is currently playing
44% better than Mohammad Alsarraj.
Mohammad Alsarraj won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohammad Alsarraj played
25% better than Bernat Jaume in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohammad Alsarraj actually played at a level of
28,219 and Bernat Jaume at a level of
22,527. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohammad Alsarraj changes to +28% and Bernat Jaume changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohammad Alsarraj becomes +6.1% and for Bernat Jaume becomes -3.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qsf No3' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohammad Alsarraj: 60%, Bernat Jaume: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohammad Alsarraj: 45%, Bernat Jaume: 61%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mohammad Alsarraj:
22,281, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Bernat Jaume:
29,316, level confidence: 61%.