SquashLevels calculations
Bernat Jaume v Umair Zaman (Sun 22 Sep 2019)
Match won by Bernat Jaume. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-1.
Starting level for
Bernat Jaume:
30,190, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Umair Zaman:
8,274, level confidence: 10%.
Bernat Jaume to win as he is currently playing
265% better than Umair Zaman.
Bernat Jaume won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bernat Jaume played
154% better than Umair Zaman in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Bernat Jaume was taking it easy by anything up to 31%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,326 and 30,190 without affecting his level.
In this case, Bernat Jaume played at level 21,003 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Umair Zaman is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bernat Jaume: 80%, Umair Zaman: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bernat Jaume: 67%, Umair Zaman: 27%.
Final level for Bernat Jaume:
30,190, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Umair Zaman:
8,274, level confidence: 27%.