Yahya Elnawasany v Syed Azlan Amjad (Sun 22 Sep 2019)
Match won by Yahya Elnawasany. Result: 11-5,9-11,12-10,19-17.
Starting level for
Yahya Elnawasany:
15,173, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for
Syed Azlan Amjad:
10,911, level confidence: 42%.
Yahya Elnawasany to win as he is currently playing
39% better than Syed Azlan Amjad.
Yahya Elnawasany won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Yahya Elnawasany played
23% better than Syed Azlan Amjad in this match.
As Yahya Elnawasany has played below his allowed range at 13,781, his level reduction is 2.8% before damping. On the assumption that Yahya Elnawasany would normally have been playing at level 14,660 (based on typical behaviour), Syed Azlan Amjad played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.6%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 3.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany changes to -1.9% and Syed Azlan Amjad changes to +3.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany becomes -0.8% and for Syed Azlan Amjad becomes +1.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qsf No3' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Yahya Elnawasany: 72%, Syed Azlan Amjad: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Yahya Elnawasany: 68%, Syed Azlan Amjad: 61%.
Final level for Yahya Elnawasany:
15,045, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Syed Azlan Amjad:
11,093, level confidence: 61%.