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Mike McCue v Babatunde Ajagbe (Sun 22 Sep 2019)

Match won by Mike McCue. Result: 11-5,11-9,11-5.

Starting level for Mike McCue: 20,859, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Babatunde Ajagbe: 16,434, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Mike McCue to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Babatunde Ajagbe.

Mike McCue won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike McCue played 74% better than Babatunde Ajagbe in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike McCue actually played at a level of 24,400 and Babatunde Ajagbe at a level of 14,049. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike McCue changes to +15% and Babatunde Ajagbe changes to -8.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike McCue becomes +3.7% and for Babatunde Ajagbe becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kiva Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike McCue: 71%, Babatunde Ajagbe: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike McCue: 61%, Babatunde Ajagbe: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike McCue: 21,632, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Babatunde Ajagbe: 16,105, level confidence: 78%.