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Wong Chi Him v Tom J Walsh (Sat 21 Sep 2019)

Match won by Wong Chi Him. Result: 11-8,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Wong Chi Him: 23,760, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom J Walsh: 21,876, level confidence: 65%.
Wong Chi Him to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Tom J Walsh.

Wong Chi Him won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Wong Chi Him played 43% better than Tom J Walsh in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Wong Chi Him actually played at a level of 27,289 and Tom J Walsh at a level of 19,047. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him changes to +11% and Tom J Walsh changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him becomes +2.9% and for Tom J Walsh becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Suqian International Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Wong Chi Him: 91%, Tom J Walsh: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Wong Chi Him: 79%, Tom J Walsh: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Wong Chi Him: 24,368, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Tom J Walsh: 21,235, level confidence: 70%.