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Wong Chi Him v Ryosei Kobayashi (Fri 20 Sep 2019)

Match won by Wong Chi Him. Result: 11-6,11-8,10-12,6-11,11-9.

Starting level for Wong Chi Him: 24,227, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ryosei Kobayashi: 20,063, level confidence: 58%.
Wong Chi Him to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Ryosei Kobayashi.

Wong Chi Him won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Wong Chi Him played 9% better than Ryosei Kobayashi in this match.

As Wong Chi Him has played below his allowed range at 22,774, his level reduction is 4% before damping. On the assumption that Wong Chi Him would normally have been playing at level 23,956 (based on typical behaviour), Ryosei Kobayashi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.6%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him changes to -2.8% and Ryosei Kobayashi changes to +4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him becomes -1.2% and for Ryosei Kobayashi becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Suqian International Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Wong Chi Him: 87%, Ryosei Kobayashi: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Wong Chi Him: 83%, Ryosei Kobayashi: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Wong Chi Him: 23,923, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Ryosei Kobayashi: 20,402, level confidence: 72%.