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Alfredo Avila v Cameron Seth (Thu 19 Sep 2019)

Match won by Alfredo Avila. Result: 12-10,11-9,11-9.

Starting level for Alfredo Avila: 30,329, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Cameron Seth: 19,450, level confidence: 60%.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Cameron Seth.

Alfredo Avila won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alfredo Avila played 33% better than Cameron Seth in this match.

As Alfredo Avila has played below his allowed range at 26,382, his level reduction is 2.4% before damping. On the assumption that Alfredo Avila would normally have been playing at level 28,619 (based on typical behaviour), Cameron Seth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila changes to -1.9% and Cameron Seth changes to +3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila becomes -0.8% and for Cameron Seth becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Nash Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alfredo Avila: 74%, Cameron Seth: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alfredo Avila: 68%, Cameron Seth: 71%.

Final level for Alfredo Avila: 30,101, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Cameron Seth: 19,742, level confidence: 71%.