Alfredo Avila v Cameron Seth (Thu 19 Sep 2019)
Match won by Alfredo Avila. Result: 12-10,11-9,11-9.
Starting level for
Alfredo Avila:
30,329, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for
Cameron Seth:
19,450, level confidence: 60%.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing
56% better than Cameron Seth.
Alfredo Avila won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alfredo Avila played
33% better than Cameron Seth in this match.
As Alfredo Avila has played below his allowed range at 26,382, his level reduction is 2.4% before damping. On the assumption that Alfredo Avila would normally have been playing at level 28,619 (based on typical behaviour), Cameron Seth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.4%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 4.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila changes to -1.9% and Cameron Seth changes to +3.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila becomes -0.8% and for Cameron Seth becomes +1.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Nash Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alfredo Avila: 74%, Cameron Seth: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alfredo Avila: 68%, Cameron Seth: 71%.
Final level for Alfredo Avila:
30,101, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Cameron Seth:
19,742, level confidence: 71%.