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Mike McCue v Jorge Luis Gomez Dominguez (Thu 19 Sep 2019)

Match won by Mike McCue. Result: 8-11,14-12,4-11,11-6,11-5.

Starting level for Mike McCue: 20,256, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Jorge Luis Gomez Dominguez: 11,732, level confidence: 10%.
Mike McCue to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Jorge Luis Gomez Dominguez.

Mike McCue won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike McCue played 9% better than Jorge Luis Gomez Dominguez in this match.

As Mike McCue has played below his allowed range at 14,811, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Mike McCue would normally have been playing at level 18,626 (based on typical behaviour), Jorge Luis Gomez Dominguez played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike McCue changes to -2.4% and Jorge Luis Gomez Dominguez changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike McCue becomes -1% and for Jorge Luis Gomez Dominguez becomes +4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kiva Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike McCue: 66%, Jorge Luis Gomez Dominguez: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike McCue: 53%, Jorge Luis Gomez Dominguez: 25%.

Final level for Mike McCue: 20,047, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Jorge Luis Gomez Dominguez: 12,230, level confidence: 25%.