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Wong Chi Him v Ludovica Cipolletta (Thu 19 Sep 2019)

Match won by Wong Chi Him. Result: 12-10,11-5,11-2.

Starting level for Wong Chi Him: 24,003, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Ludovica Cipolletta: 12,946, level confidence: 49%.
Wong Chi Him to win as he is currently playing 85% better than Ludovica Cipolletta.

Wong Chi Him won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Wong Chi Him played 100% better than Ludovica Cipolletta in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Wong Chi Him actually played at a level of 24,930 and Ludovica Cipolletta at a level of 12,465. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 2.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him changes to +2.2% and Ludovica Cipolletta changes to -2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him becomes +0.9% and for Ludovica Cipolletta becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Suqian International Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Wong Chi Him: 79%, Ludovica Cipolletta: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Wong Chi Him: 76%, Ludovica Cipolletta: 67%.

Final level for Wong Chi Him: 24,227, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Ludovica Cipolletta: 12,777, level confidence: 67%.