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Alfredo Avila v Darosham Khan (Wed 18 Sep 2019)

Match won by Alfredo Avila. Result: 11-9,11-3,11-6.

Starting level for Alfredo Avila: 30,525, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Darosham Khan: 11,277, level confidence: 58%.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing 171% better than Darosham Khan.

Alfredo Avila won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alfredo Avila played 83% better than Darosham Khan in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Alfredo Avila was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 19,007 and 30,525 without affecting his level.

In this case, Alfredo Avila played at level 22,316 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Alfredo Avila would normally have been playing at level 24,087 (based on typical behaviour), Darosham Khan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila changes to 0% and Darosham Khan changes to +3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila becomes 0% and for Darosham Khan becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Nash Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alfredo Avila: 67%, Darosham Khan: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alfredo Avila: 55%, Darosham Khan: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alfredo Avila: 30,525, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Darosham Khan: 11,460, level confidence: 63%.