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Vikram Malhotra v Alex Noakes (Wed 18 Sep 2019)

Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Vikram Malhotra: 27,711, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alex Noakes: 10,799, level confidence: 54%.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing 157% better than Alex Noakes.

Vikram Malhotra won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played 154% better than Alex Noakes in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Vikram Malhotra was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 17,986 and 27,711 without affecting his level.

In this case, Vikram Malhotra played at level 27,413 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Alex Noakes is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 88%, Alex Noakes: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 87%, Alex Noakes: 73%.

Final level for Vikram Malhotra: 27,711, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Alex Noakes: 10,799, level confidence: 73%.