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Millie Tomlinson v Hollie Naughton (Sat 21 Sep 2019)

Match won by Millie Tomlinson. Result: 6-11,3-11,11-9,13-11,12-10.

Starting level for Millie Tomlinson: 8,273, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 7,502, level confidence: 35%.
Millie Tomlinson to win as she is currently playing 10% better than Hollie Naughton.

Millie Tomlinson won 60% of the games and 46% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was worse by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Millie Tomlinson played 4% better than Hollie Naughton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Millie Tomlinson actually played at a level of 8,039 and Hollie Naughton at a level of 7,720. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Millie Tomlinson changes to -1.4% and Hollie Naughton changes to +2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Millie Tomlinson becomes -0.8% and for Hollie Naughton becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'European Club League Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Millie Tomlinson: 81%, Hollie Naughton: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Millie Tomlinson: 78%, Hollie Naughton: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Millie Tomlinson: 8,173, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Hollie Naughton: 7,601, level confidence: 57%.