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Raphael Kandra v Stuart George (Fri 20 Sep 2019)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 8-11,7-11,11-7,11-8,11-3.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 40,768, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Stuart George: 19,160, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 113% better than Stuart George.

Raphael Kandra won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 13% better than Stuart George in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Raphael Kandra was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 30,124 and 40,768 without affecting his level.

As Raphael Kandra has played below his allowed range at 25,482, his level reduction is 18% before damping. On the assumption that Raphael Kandra would normally have been playing at level 35,044 (based on typical behaviour), Stuart George played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 28%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to -12% and Stuart George changes to +17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes -2.8% and for Stuart George becomes +4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ECC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 84%, Stuart George: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 61%, Stuart George: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 39,590, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Stuart George: 19,940, level confidence: 63%.