Hollie Naughton v Kinga Szymaniak (Fri 20 Sep 2019)
Match won by Hollie Naughton. Result: 11-3,11-3,11-5.
Starting level for
Hollie Naughton:
7,491, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Kinga Szymaniak:
401, level confidence: 25%.
Hollie Naughton to win as she is currently playing
1768% better than Kinga Szymaniak.
Hollie Naughton won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hollie Naughton played
200% better than Kinga Szymaniak in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Hollie Naughton was taking it easy by anything up to 70%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 668 and 7,491 without affecting her level.
In this case, Hollie Naughton played at level 1,641 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Hollie Naughton would normally have been playing at level 2,238 (based on typical behaviour), Kinga Szymaniak played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 36%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton changes to 0% and Kinga Szymaniak changes to +7.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton becomes 0% and for Kinga Szymaniak becomes +5.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ECC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hollie Naughton: 87%, Kinga Szymaniak: 50%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hollie Naughton: 35%, Kinga Szymaniak: 20%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Hollie Naughton:
7,480, level confidence: 35%.
Final level for Kinga Szymaniak:
421, level confidence: 20%.