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Miles Jenkins v Greg Lobban (Fri 20 Sep 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 7-11,6-11,6-11.

Starting level for Miles Jenkins: 21,741, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 42,920, level confidence: 64%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 97% better than Miles Jenkins.

Greg Lobban won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 74% better than Miles Jenkins in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Greg Lobban was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 33,303 and 42,920 without affecting his level.

In this case, Greg Lobban played at level 37,784 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Miles Jenkins is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to 0% and Miles Jenkins changes to 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 80%, Miles Jenkins: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 75%, Miles Jenkins: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miles Jenkins: 21,965, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 42,964, level confidence: 75%.