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Hollie Naughton v Nadia Pfister (Fri 20 Sep 2019)

Match won by Hollie Naughton. Result: 11-5,12-10,12-10.

Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 7,600, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Nadia Pfister: 4,288, level confidence: 35%.
Hollie Naughton to win as she is currently playing 77% better than Nadia Pfister.

Hollie Naughton won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hollie Naughton played 45% better than Nadia Pfister in this match.

As Hollie Naughton has played below her allowed range at 6,273, her level reduction is 0.9% before damping. On the assumption that Hollie Naughton would normally have been playing at level 6,936 (based on typical behaviour), Nadia Pfister played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 4.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton changes to -0.3% and Nadia Pfister changes to +4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton becomes -0.2% and for Nadia Pfister becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ECC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hollie Naughton: 83%, Nadia Pfister: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hollie Naughton: 75%, Nadia Pfister: 53%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hollie Naughton: 7,497, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Nadia Pfister: 4,418, level confidence: 53%.