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Raphael Kandra v Brian Byrne (Thu 19 Sep 2019)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 40,637, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Brian Byrne: 17,152, level confidence: 54%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 137% better than Brian Byrne.

Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 65% better than Brian Byrne in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Raphael Kandra was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 27,956 and 40,637 without affecting his level.

In this case, Raphael Kandra played at level 30,885 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Raphael Kandra would normally have been playing at level 33,705 (based on typical behaviour), Brian Byrne played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to 0% and Brian Byrne changes to +5.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes 0% and for Brian Byrne becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ECC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 86%, Brian Byrne: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 71%, Brian Byrne: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 40,576, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Brian Byrne: 17,461, level confidence: 61%.