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Hollie Naughton v Milou Van Der Heijden (Thu 19 Sep 2019)

Match won by Hollie Naughton. Result: 11-7,12-10,11-5.

Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 7,243, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Milou Van Der Heijden: 7,558, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Milou Van Der Heijden to win as she is currently playing 4% better than Hollie Naughton.

Hollie Naughton won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hollie Naughton played 55% better than Milou Van Der Heijden in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hollie Naughton actually played at a level of 9,202 and Milou Van Der Heijden at a level of 5,949. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton changes to +26% and Milou Van Der Heijden changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton becomes +7.4% and for Milou Van Der Heijden becomes -7.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ECC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Hollie Naughton is limited to +5.4% and Milou Van Der Heijden is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hollie Naughton: 88%, Milou Van Der Heijden: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hollie Naughton: 69%, Milou Van Der Heijden: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hollie Naughton: 7,617, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Milou Van Der Heijden: 7,180, level confidence: 70%.