Hollie Naughton v Georgia Adderley (Wed 18 Sep 2019)
Match won by Hollie Naughton. Result: 14-12,11-5,11-5.
Starting level for
Hollie Naughton:
7,063, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Georgia Adderley:
5,628, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Hollie Naughton to win as she is currently playing
25% better than Georgia Adderley.
Hollie Naughton won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 64% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hollie Naughton played
64% better than Georgia Adderley in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hollie Naughton actually played at a level of
8,065 and Georgia Adderley at a level of
4,929. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton changes to +12% and Georgia Adderley changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton becomes +4% and for Georgia Adderley becomes -4.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ECC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hollie Naughton: 88%, Georgia Adderley: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hollie Naughton: 77%, Georgia Adderley: 77%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Hollie Naughton:
7,223, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Georgia Adderley:
5,465, level confidence: 77%.