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Hollie Naughton v Lisa Aitken (Wed 18 Sep 2019)

Match won by Lisa Aitken. Result: 7-11,11-9,6-11,6-11.

Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 7,238, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lisa Aitken: 8,007, level confidence: 50%.
Lisa Aitken to win as she is currently playing 11% better than Hollie Naughton.

Lisa Aitken won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lisa Aitken played 30% better than Hollie Naughton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lisa Aitken actually played at a level of 8,678 and Hollie Naughton at a level of 6,678. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lisa Aitken changes to +8% and Hollie Naughton changes to -5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lisa Aitken becomes +2.8% and for Hollie Naughton becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ECC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lisa Aitken: 71%, Hollie Naughton: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lisa Aitken: 65%, Hollie Naughton: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hollie Naughton: 7,102, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Lisa Aitken: 8,148, level confidence: 65%.