Greg Lobban v Tsz Fung Yip (Sat 14 Sep 2019)
Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-5.
Starting level for
Greg Lobban:
40,979, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Tsz Fung Yip:
37,871, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing
8% better than Tsz Fung Yip.
Greg Lobban won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played
74% better than Tsz Fung Yip in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of
51,918 and Tsz Fung Yip at a level of
29,892. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +26% and Tsz Fung Yip changes to -18%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +5% and for Tsz Fung Yip becomes -3.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 78%, Tsz Fung Yip: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 62%, Tsz Fung Yip: 72%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Greg Lobban:
42,767, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip:
36,660, level confidence: 72%.