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Joel Makin v Fares Dessouky (Thu 12 Sep 2019)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 10-12,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 58,149, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Fares Dessouky: 53,840, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Fares Dessouky.

Joel Makin won 67% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 24% better than Fares Dessouky in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of 62,307 and Fares Dessouky at a level of 50,247. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.2% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 5.1% and 5.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +4.6% and Fares Dessouky changes to -5.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +1.4% and for Fares Dessouky becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open De France' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 90%, Fares Dessouky: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 84%, Fares Dessouky: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 58,826, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Fares Dessouky: 53,136, level confidence: 80%.