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Gregoire Marche v Simon Rösner (Thu 12 Sep 2019)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-5,9-11,11-3.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 52,870, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Simon Rösner: 53,414, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Simon Rösner to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Gregoire Marche.

Gregoire Marche won 67% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 63% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 42% better than Simon Rösner in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregoire Marche actually played at a level of 63,231 and Simon Rösner at a level of 44,661. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to +14% and Simon Rösner changes to -8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes +3% and for Simon Rösner becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open De France' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 66%, Simon Rösner: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 55%, Simon Rösner: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 54,273, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Simon Rösner: 52,428, level confidence: 71%.