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Abdulla Al-Tamimi v Tsz Kwan Lau (Thu 12 Sep 2019)

Match won by Abdulla Al-Tamimi. Result: 13-11,11-8,4-11,12-10.

Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 31,032, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tsz Kwan Lau: 26,836, level confidence: 54%.
Abdulla Al-Tamimi to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Tsz Kwan Lau.

Abdulla Al-Tamimi won 75% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdulla Al-Tamimi played 17% better than Tsz Kwan Lau in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdulla Al-Tamimi actually played at a level of 31,181 and Tsz Kwan Lau at a level of 26,708. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to +0.3% and Tsz Kwan Lau changes to -0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes +0.1% and for Tsz Kwan Lau becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 84%, Tsz Kwan Lau: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 83%, Tsz Kwan Lau: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 31,011, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Tsz Kwan Lau: 26,845, level confidence: 73%.