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Mohamed Elsherbini v Dimitri Steinmann (Thu 12 Sep 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 11-9,14-12,12-10.

Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 35,257, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dimitri Steinmann: 27,838, level confidence: 62%.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Dimitri Steinmann.

Mohamed Elsherbini won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played 31% better than Dimitri Steinmann in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elsherbini actually played at a level of 35,873 and Dimitri Steinmann at a level of 27,360. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.6% and 1.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to +1.3% and Dimitri Steinmann changes to -1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes +0.5% and for Dimitri Steinmann becomes -0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 85%, Dimitri Steinmann: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 83%, Dimitri Steinmann: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 35,237, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Dimitri Steinmann: 27,822, level confidence: 77%.