Joel Makin v Alan Clyne (Wed 11 Sep 2019)
Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-8,11-9.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
57,878, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Alan Clyne:
44,074, level confidence: 62%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Alan Clyne.
Joel Makin won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played
38% better than Alan Clyne in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of
59,301 and Alan Clyne at a level of
43,017. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.1% and 2.1% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 1.6% and 1.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +1.5% and Alan Clyne changes to -1.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +0.5% and for Alan Clyne becomes -0.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open De France' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 83%, Alan Clyne: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 81%, Alan Clyne: 77%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joel Makin:
57,898, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Alan Clyne:
44,019, level confidence: 77%.