Donna Lobban v Ho Tze-Lok (Wed 11 Sep 2019)
Match won by Donna Lobban. Result: 11-7,11-6,12-10.
Starting level for
Donna Lobban:
8,024, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for
Ho Tze-Lok:
6,748, level confidence: 61%.
Donna Lobban to win as she is currently playing
19% better than Ho Tze-Lok.
Donna Lobban won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Donna Lobban played
50% better than Ho Tze-Lok in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Donna Lobban actually played at a level of
9,018 and Ho Tze-Lok at a level of
6,004. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Donna Lobban changes to +11% and Ho Tze-Lok changes to -11.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Donna Lobban becomes +3.7% and for Ho Tze-Lok becomes -3.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Donna Lobban: 77%, Ho Tze-Lok: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Donna Lobban: 69%, Ho Tze-Lok: 69%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Donna Lobban:
8,197, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Ho Tze-Lok:
6,569, level confidence: 69%.