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Lucas Serme v Peter Creed (Wed 11 Sep 2019)

Match won by Lucas Serme. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Lucas Serme: 40,318, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 26,819, level confidence: 69%.
Lucas Serme to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Peter Creed.

Lucas Serme won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lucas Serme played 120% better than Peter Creed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lucas Serme actually played at a level of 48,773 and Peter Creed at a level of 22,170. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lucas Serme changes to +17% and Peter Creed changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lucas Serme becomes +3.6% and for Peter Creed becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lucas Serme: 78%, Peter Creed: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lucas Serme: 64%, Peter Creed: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lucas Serme: 41,431, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 26,106, level confidence: 69%.