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Mohamed Elsherbini v Youssef Soliman (Wed 11 Sep 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 11-8,6-11,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 34,570, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 36,734, level confidence: 66%.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Mohamed Elsherbini.

Mohamed Elsherbini won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played 24% better than Youssef Soliman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elsherbini actually played at a level of 39,677 and Youssef Soliman at a level of 32,006. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to +14% and Youssef Soliman changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes +3.2% and for Youssef Soliman becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 83%, Youssef Soliman: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 72%, Youssef Soliman: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 35,533, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman: 35,634, level confidence: 71%.