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Dimitri Steinmann v Max Lee (Wed 11 Sep 2019)

Match won by Dimitri Steinmann. Result: 11-3,9-11,3-11,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Dimitri Steinmann: 26,966, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Max Lee: 39,830, level confidence: 40%.
Max Lee to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Dimitri Steinmann.

Dimitri Steinmann won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dimitri Steinmann played 11% better than Max Lee in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dimitri Steinmann actually played at a level of 34,470 and Max Lee at a level of 31,159. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dimitri Steinmann changes to +14% and Max Lee changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dimitri Steinmann becomes +3.4% and for Max Lee becomes -4.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dimitri Steinmann: 79%, Max Lee: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dimitri Steinmann: 62%, Max Lee: 49%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dimitri Steinmann: 27,852, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Max Lee: 38,118, level confidence: 49%.