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George Parker v Mazen Gamal (Tue 10 Sep 2019)

Match won by George Parker. Result: 11-9,11-8.

Starting level for George Parker: 37,182, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mazen Gamal: 27,631, level confidence: 43%.
George Parker to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Mazen Gamal.

George Parker won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Parker played 38% better than Mazen Gamal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like George Parker actually played at a level of 37,634 and Mazen Gamal at a level of 27,299. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1% and 1% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 0.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Parker changes to +0.4% and Mazen Gamal changes to -0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Parker becomes +0.2% and for Mazen Gamal becomes -0.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open De France' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Parker: 89%, Mazen Gamal: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Parker: 88%, Mazen Gamal: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for George Parker: 37,142, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Mazen Gamal: 27,601, level confidence: 65%.