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Alan Clyne v Baptiste Masotti (Tue 10 Sep 2019)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Alan Clyne: 43,435, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 35,406, level confidence: 63%.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Baptiste Masotti.

Alan Clyne won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 83% better than Baptiste Masotti in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Clyne actually played at a level of 53,098 and Baptiste Masotti at a level of 28,963. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to +15% and Baptiste Masotti changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes +3.2% and for Baptiste Masotti becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open De France' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 76%, Baptiste Masotti: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 62%, Baptiste Masotti: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Clyne: 44,547, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 34,465, level confidence: 65%.