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Nathan Lake v Daryl Selby (Tue 10 Sep 2019)

Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 11-2,11-6.

Starting level for Nathan Lake: 32,508, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 37,417, level confidence: 58%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Nathan Lake.

Nathan Lake won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played 175% better than Daryl Selby in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Lake actually played at a level of 57,836 and Daryl Selby at a level of 21,031. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 78% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 50% and 50% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Lake changes to +50% and Daryl Selby changes to -33%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Lake becomes +9% and for Daryl Selby becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open De France' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nathan Lake is limited to +5.6% and Daryl Selby is limited to -5.4% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 66%, Daryl Selby: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 37%, Daryl Selby: 43%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nathan Lake: 34,291, level confidence: 37%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 35,464, level confidence: 43%.