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Borja Golan v Richie Fallows (Tue 10 Sep 2019)

Match won by Borja Golan. Result: 11-13,11-9,11-4.

Starting level for Borja Golan: 41,233, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Richie Fallows: 31,044, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Borja Golan to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Richie Fallows.

Borja Golan won 67% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Borja Golan played 23% better than Richie Fallows in this match.

As Borja Golan has played below his allowed range at 38,725, his level reduction is 1% before damping. On the assumption that Borja Golan would normally have been playing at level 40,166 (based on typical behaviour), Richie Fallows played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 2.1% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 1.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Borja Golan changes to -0.7% and Richie Fallows changes to +1.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Borja Golan becomes -0.3% and for Richie Fallows becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open De France' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Borja Golan: 81%, Richie Fallows: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Borja Golan: 78%, Richie Fallows: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Borja Golan: 40,954, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Richie Fallows: 31,262, level confidence: 87%.