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Raneem El Welily v Reeham Sedky (Sun 25 Aug 2019)

Match won by Raneem El Welily. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Raneem El Welily: 14,123, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Reeham Sedky: 12,008, level confidence: 36%.
Raneem El Welily to win as she is currently playing 18% better than Reeham Sedky.

Raneem El Welily won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raneem El Welily played 56% better than Reeham Sedky in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raneem El Welily actually played at a level of 16,288 and Reeham Sedky at a level of 10,412. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily changes to +7.7% and Reeham Sedky changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily becomes +2.4% and for Reeham Sedky becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Bellevue International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raneem El Welily: 81%, Reeham Sedky: 60%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raneem El Welily: 70%, Reeham Sedky: 52%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raneem El Welily: 14,353, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Reeham Sedky: 11,681, level confidence: 52%.