Nour El Tayeb v Raneem El Welily (Sun 08 Sep 2019)
Match won by Nour El Tayeb. Result: 11-9,9-11,11-9,9-11,12-10.
Starting level for
Nour El Tayeb:
14,650, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for
Raneem El Welily:
13,847, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Nour El Tayeb to win as she is currently playing
6% better than Raneem El Welily.
Nour El Tayeb won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nour El Tayeb played
9% better than Raneem El Welily in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nour El Tayeb actually played at a level of
14,836 and Raneem El Welily at a level of
13,674. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nour El Tayeb changes to +1.2% and Raneem El Welily changes to -0.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nour El Tayeb becomes +0.6% and for Raneem El Welily becomes -0.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nour El Tayeb: 75%, Raneem El Welily: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nour El Tayeb: 74%, Raneem El Welily: 93%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nour El Tayeb:
14,642, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Raneem El Welily:
13,815, level confidence: 93%.