Mohamed Elshorbagy v Marwan Elshorbagy (Sat 07 Sep 2019)
Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 8-11, 11-5, 11-8, 11-9.
Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy
, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Marwan Elshorbagy
, level confidence: 59%.
Expected winner: Mohamed Elshorbagy as he is 33% better
than Marwan Elshorbagy.
Mohamed Elshorbagy won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 24% better
than Marwan Elshorbagy in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 48,100
and Marwan Elshorbagy at a level of 38,768
. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.
Factoring in the respective confidence levels which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy would be -3% and for Marwan Elshorbagy would be +4%.
After applying damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -1% and for Marwan Elshorbagy becomes +1%.
Apply match/event weighting which for 'PSA China Open' is 100% leaving the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy as -1% and for Marwan Elshorbagy as +1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 76%, Marwan Elshorbagy: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 73%, Marwan Elshorbagy: 72%.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 49,225
, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 37,916
, level confidence: 72%.