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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Marwan Elshorbagy (Sat 07 Sep 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 8-11,11-5,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 67,308, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 50,892, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Marwan Elshorbagy.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 25% better than Marwan Elshorbagy in this match.

As Mohamed Elshorbagy has played below his allowed range at 63,725, his level reduction is 0.4% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 65,615 (based on typical behaviour), Marwan Elshorbagy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.3% and 1.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -0.3% and Marwan Elshorbagy changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -0.1% and for Marwan Elshorbagy becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 79%, Marwan Elshorbagy: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 76%, Marwan Elshorbagy: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 66,881, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 51,294, level confidence: 82%.