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Ali Farag v Tom Richards (Fri 06 Sep 2019)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 14-12,6-11,11-4,9-11,11-5.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 73,325, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Tom Richards: 40,634, level confidence: 59%.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 80% better than Tom Richards.

Ali Farag won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 12% better than Tom Richards in this match.

As Ali Farag has played below his allowed range at 52,474, his level reduction is 15% before damping. On the assumption that Ali Farag would normally have been playing at level 66,562 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Richards played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11.1% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to -10.6% and Tom Richards changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes -2.3% and for Tom Richards becomes +3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 78%, Tom Richards: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 62%, Tom Richards: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 71,522, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Tom Richards: 41,987, level confidence: 61%.