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Borja Golan v Nicolas Mueller (Thu 05 Sep 2019)

Match won by Borja Golan. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-2.

Starting level for Borja Golan: 39,950, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Nicolas Mueller: 38,933, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Borja Golan to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Nicolas Mueller.

Borja Golan won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Borja Golan played 200% better than Nicolas Mueller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Borja Golan actually played at a level of 68,309 and Nicolas Mueller at a level of 22,770. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 71% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Borja Golan changes to +70% and Nicolas Mueller changes to -62%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Borja Golan becomes +11.3% and for Nicolas Mueller becomes -10.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Individual Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Borja Golan is limited to +5.3% and Nicolas Mueller is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Borja Golan: 83%, Nicolas Mueller: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Borja Golan: 49%, Nicolas Mueller: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Borja Golan: 42,020, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Nicolas Mueller: 37,047, level confidence: 50%.