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Bernat Jaume v Cláudio Pinto (Thu 05 Sep 2019)

Match won by Bernat Jaume. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Bernat Jaume: 30,571, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Cláudio Pinto: 20,123, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Bernat Jaume to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Cláudio Pinto.

Bernat Jaume won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bernat Jaume played 83% better than Cláudio Pinto in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bernat Jaume actually played at a level of 33,583 and Cláudio Pinto at a level of 18,318. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.9% and 7.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bernat Jaume changes to +7.9% and Cláudio Pinto changes to -5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bernat Jaume becomes +2.2% and for Cláudio Pinto becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bernat Jaume: 71%, Cláudio Pinto: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bernat Jaume: 65%, Cláudio Pinto: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Bernat Jaume: 30,993, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Cláudio Pinto: 19,831, level confidence: 76%.