Raneem El Welily v Milou Van Der Heijden (Thu 05 Sep 2019)
Match won by Raneem El Welily. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-5.
Starting level for
Raneem El Welily:
13,716, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Milou Van Der Heijden:
7,617, level confidence: 45%.
Raneem El Welily to win as she is currently playing
80% better than Milou Van Der Heijden.
Raneem El Welily won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raneem El Welily played
94% better than Milou Van Der Heijden in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raneem El Welily actually played at a level of
14,241 and Milou Van Der Heijden at a level of
7,336. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 2.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily changes to +1.6% and Milou Van Der Heijden changes to -2.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily becomes +0.8% and for Milou Van Der Heijden becomes -1.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raneem El Welily: 89%, Milou Van Der Heijden: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raneem El Welily: 86%, Milou Van Der Heijden: 65%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Raneem El Welily:
13,698, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Milou Van Der Heijden:
7,607, level confidence: 65%.