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Omar Mosaad v Abdulla Al-Tamimi (Thu 05 Sep 2019)

Match won by Omar Mosaad. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-8.

Starting level for Omar Mosaad: 40,803, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 31,250, level confidence: 66%.
Omar Mosaad to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi.

Omar Mosaad won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Omar Mosaad played 106% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Omar Mosaad actually played at a level of 51,282 and Abdulla Al-Tamimi at a level of 24,864. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Omar Mosaad changes to +22% and Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Omar Mosaad becomes +4.5% and for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Omar Mosaad: 73%, Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Omar Mosaad: 58%, Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Omar Mosaad: 42,252, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 30,252, level confidence: 64%.