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Marwan Elshorbagy v Iker Pajares Bernabeu (Thu 05 Sep 2019)

Match won by Marwan Elshorbagy. Result: 11-4,12-14,11-9,11-4.

Starting level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 48,826, level confidence: 41%.
Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 41,314, level confidence: 59%.
Marwan Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu.

Marwan Elshorbagy won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marwan Elshorbagy played 32% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marwan Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 51,534 and Iker Pajares Bernabeu at a level of 39,143. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy changes to +5.1% and Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to -3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy becomes +1.5% and for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes -1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marwan Elshorbagy: 64%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marwan Elshorbagy: 60%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 49,373, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 40,932, level confidence: 72%.