Saurav Ghosal v Tsz Fung Yip (Thu 05 Sep 2019)
Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-7,11-4,11-7.
Starting level for
Saurav Ghosal:
50,135, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for
Tsz Fung Yip:
37,833, level confidence: 52%.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing
33% better than Tsz Fung Yip.
Saurav Ghosal won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played
83% better than Tsz Fung Yip in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of
58,969 and Tsz Fung Yip at a level of
32,165. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to +15% and Tsz Fung Yip changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes +3.2% and for Tsz Fung Yip becomes -2.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 65%, Tsz Fung Yip: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 55%, Tsz Fung Yip: 61%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal:
51,355, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip:
36,947, level confidence: 61%.