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Zeina Mickawy v Hollie Naughton (Wed 04 Sep 2019)

Match won by Zeina Mickawy. Result: 12-10,14-12,11-6.

Starting level for Zeina Mickawy: 7,972, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 7,438, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Zeina Mickawy to win as she is currently playing 7% better than Hollie Naughton.

Zeina Mickawy won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zeina Mickawy played 40% better than Hollie Naughton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Zeina Mickawy actually played at a level of 9,101 and Hollie Naughton at a level of 6,515. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zeina Mickawy changes to +14% and Hollie Naughton changes to -8.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zeina Mickawy becomes +4.2% and for Hollie Naughton becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zeina Mickawy: 71%, Hollie Naughton: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zeina Mickawy: 62%, Hollie Naughton: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Zeina Mickawy: 8,212, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Hollie Naughton: 7,256, level confidence: 76%.